Fire AggroTier 2
at Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 13.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.1% | +4.9 |
| Water Genbu | 13.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.6% | +6.4 |
| Wind Allies | 13.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.0% | +16.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Fire Exia | 4.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.8% | +5.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.5 |
| Wind Lorraine | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.4 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 50 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 50 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vermilion Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blitz Mage | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Strapping Conscript | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Forgelight Blade | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Creative Shock | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blazing Bowman | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sword Saint of Everflame | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tempered Steel | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |