Water GenbuTier 2
at Regional
decks
3
(13.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
6-6-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.2%
avg ELO +0.9 per match
expected value
45.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1226
· median 1233
· range 1201–1244
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1051
Q1 1185
Q3 1363
1484
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 17.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.4% | -6.4 |
| Water Fractal | 13.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.5% | -11.1 |
| Wind Allies | 13.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.7 |
| Fire Exia | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +20.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 62.9% | +12.4 |
| Wind Lorraine | 4.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.8% | +8.4 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.4 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
