Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Regional
decks
2
(8.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
1-5-1
overall winrate
21.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
37.4%
avg ELO -6.3 per match
expected value
37.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
40.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1184
· median 1184
· range 1123–1244
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1051
Q1 1185
Q3 1363
1484
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 17.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.0% | -16.3 |
| Water Fractal | 13.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.4% | -7.3 |
| Water Genbu | 13.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 13.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.9% | -4.0 |
| Fire Exia | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
