EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at MANAPRO STORE CHAMPIONSHIP SINGAPORE. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Wind Luxem Zander

51.4%

3.8% share · 4 matches

15.4% share · 16 matches

3rd

Fire Luxem Assassin

50.3%

11.5% share · 15 matches

↓ low

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Wind Astra Cleric	4	15.4%	16	78.1%	67.8%	60.0%	57.2%	1299	—
2	Wind Luxem Zander	1	3.8%	4	50.0%	42.0%	51.4%	48.1%	1388	↑ top
3	Fire Luxem Assassin	3	11.5%	15	53.3%	50.5%	50.3%	49.1%	1196	↓ low
4	Water Fractal	4	15.4%	16	53.1%	53.5%	49.4%	50.3%	1293	—
5	Wind Seiryuu	3	11.5%	12	50.0%	57.0%	49.2%	51.7%	1214	↓ low
6	Wind Shadowstrike	1	3.8%	5	50.0%	51.5%	48.2%	49.7%	1250	—
7	Fire Aggro	2	7.7%	10	40.0%	42.9%	48.1%	47.4%	1272	—
8	Water Genbu	4	15.4%	14	46.4%	46.9%	46.3%	47.3%	1268	—
9	Wind Allies	2	7.7%	6	33.3%	43.7%	44.4%	46.0%	1133	↓ low
10	Fire Crux Mage	1	3.8%	5	20.0%	27.6%	41.3%	39.9%	1489	↑ top
11	Fire Exia	1	3.8%	5	20.0%	41.8%	40.0%	43.1%	1362	↑ top