Fire EruptingTier 2
at 貓腳印-桃園店 店家冠軍賽
decks
3
(18.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
5-4-2
overall winrate
54.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.6%
avg ELO +2.0 per match
expected value
48.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1242
· median 1247
· range 1208–1272
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1053
Q1 1254
Q3 1406
1482
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
67% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 18.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 12.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.9 |
| Water Allies | 12.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -1.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.4 |
| Fire Vanitas | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Water Arisanna | 6.2% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 69.5% | +14.6 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
