Water AlliesTier 2
at 貓腳印-桃園店 店家冠軍賽
decks
2
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
3-4-2
overall winrate
44.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.8%
avg ELO -1.0 per match
expected value
46.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1399
· median 1399
· range 1365–1432
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1053
Q1 1254
Q3 1406
1482
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Erupting | 18.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +1.5 |
| Wind Allies | 18.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.7% | -12.7 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 12.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.1% | -3.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.6 |
| Fire Vanitas | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Water Arisanna | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
