← HVN Regionals @ Hobby Lords Lower Hutt
Fire Firebloom BurnTier 2
at HVN Regionals @ Hobby Lords Lower Hutt
decks
1
(3.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-2-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.6%
avg ELO +3.8 per match
expected value
49.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1150
· median 1150
· range 1150–1150
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
921
Q1 1174
Q3 1371
1599
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 9.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Wind Allies | 9.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +3.6 |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.4% | -2.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.7 |
| Slimes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Polkhawk | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Firebloom Burn decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
