← HVN Regionals @ Hobby Lords Lower Hutt
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at HVN Regionals @ Hobby Lords Lower Hutt
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 9.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.6% | -10.0 |
| Wind Allies | 9.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 9.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.4% | -0.4 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 6.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.7% | +2.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +2.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.2% | -4.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.9% | +8.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.9% | -3.9 |
| Slimes | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.1 |
| Water Polkhawk | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.3% | -22.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 20 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shimmercloak Assassin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slimeshield | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Winbless Lookout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shadowstrike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |