EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at CakeTCG Utrecht Regional.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 70.0% | 58.8% | 59.5% | 55.9% | 1281 | — |
| 2 | Wind Allies | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 80.0% | 49.6% | 57.8% | 50.4% | 1464 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 87.5% | 55.8% | 55.0% | 50.6% | 1520 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Luxem Zander | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 60.0% | 49.3% | 52.0% | 49.1% | 1418 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Aggro | 3 | 17.6% | 13 | 53.8% | 54.4% | 51.4% | 52.0% | 1324 | — |
| 6 | Water Genbu | 2 | 11.8% | 10 | 50.0% | 47.0% | 50.6% | 48.3% | 1317 | — |
| 7 | Water Fractal | 4 | 23.5% | 16 | 43.8% | 50.0% | 48.1% | 50.2% | 1278 | — |
| 8 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 40.0% | 52.0% | 45.5% | 49.2% | 1191 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 20.0% | 43.5% | 44.3% | 47.5% | 1264 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Water Allies | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 20.0% | 40.8% | 44.0% | 46.7% | 1244 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Water Tera Cleric | 1 | 5.9% | 1 | 0.0% | 44.7% | 40.0% | 44.7% | 1191 | ↓ low |