Fire LorraineTier 2
at Webcam Weekly 4/18/2024
decks
1
(2.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-1-1
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.1%
avg ELO +0.7 per match
expected value
51.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1527
· median 1527
· range 1527–1527
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1000
Q1 1154
Q3 1365
1652
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 13.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 50.7% | +0.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 13.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 10.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 8.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Allies | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tonoris | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Lorraine | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Tamer | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.3 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Lorraine decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
