Fire Umbra RangerTier 2
at Webcam Weekly 4/18/2024
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 13.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 49.4% | -0.4 |
| Water Allies | 10.9% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 49.5% | -0.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 48.5% | -1.4 |
| Fire Erupting | 8.7% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +0.5 |
| Wind Allies | 8.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Water Tonoris | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.1% | +1.8 |
| Water Lorraine | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Tamer | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.9% | -1.8 |
| Wind Silvie | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
The 6 public Fire Umbra Ranger decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 19 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 19 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Automaton Bomber | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exorcise Curses | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blastshot Pump | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deploy Gunshield | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Shot | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| False Step | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backstep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Relentless Hexchaser | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reposition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mindbreak Bullet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |