Water AlliesTier 1
at Webcam Weekly 4/18/2024
decks
5
(10.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
17
10-6-1
overall winrate
61.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.9%
avg ELO +0.4 per match
expected value
55.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1257
· median 1147
· range 1101–1567
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1000
Q1 1154
Q3 1365
1652
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
60% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 13.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 13.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 50.5% | +0.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 51.7% | +1.7 |
| Fire Erupting | 8.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.0% | +1.7 |
| Wind Allies | 8.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tonoris | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.6% | -0.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.4% | -0.9 |
| Water Lorraine | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.5% | -0.9 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Tamer | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
