← The 1st Non-Meta deck Tournament (Hong Kong)

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at The 1st Non-Meta deck Tournament (Hong Kong). EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Seiryuu 1 5.0% 9 83.3% 52.6% 59.8% 51.5% 1390 ↑ top
2 Water Umbra Tristan 1 5.0% 12 75.0% 54.7% 59.3% 52.3% 1370
3 Fire Luxem Tamer 2 10.0% 14 60.7% 51.0% 54.7% 50.9% 1308
4 Wind Tera Cleric 1 5.0% 7 64.3% 53.0% 54.5% 51.5% 1211 ↓ low
5 Wind Byakko 3 15.0% 23 58.7% 49.1% 52.7% 49.8% 1383 ↑ top
6 Fire Umbra Ranger 1 5.0% 6 50.0% 49.3% 52.5% 50.2% 1333
7 Water Zander 1 5.0% 7 57.1% 51.4% 50.7% 50.6% 1160 ↓ low
8 Fire Crux Merlin 1 5.0% 8 50.0% 49.7% 50.0% 49.8% 1298
9 Wind Umbra Tristan 1 5.0% 6 41.7% 50.3% 48.8% 50.1% 1221 ↓ low
10 Water Crux Merlin 1 5.0% 6 50.0% 48.1% 48.3% 49.1% 1411 ↑ top
11 Wind Luxem Tamer 3 15.0% 19 47.4% 49.3% 48.1% 49.6% 1338
12 Fire Byakko 2 10.0% 9 33.3% 47.9% 47.9% 49.5% 1346
13 Wind Arcane 1 5.0% 9 44.4% 49.9% 46.2% 49.7% 1223 ↓ low
14 Wind Tera Diao Chan 1 5.0% 6 33.3% 50.7% 45.7% 50.2% 1196 ↓ low
15 Wind Tera Mage 1 5.0% 9 44.4% 50.5% 45.4% 49.6% 1535 ↑ top
16 Wind Seiryuu 1 5.0% 6 33.3% 48.5% 44.0% 49.0% 1380 ↑ top
17 Wind Astra Cleric 1 5.0% 7 28.6% 49.2% 43.3% 49.4% 1362
18 Water Tera Cleric 1 5.0% 7 14.3% 45.8% 43.1% 48.9% 1432 ↑ top
19 Fire Tera Diao Chan 1 5.0% 6 25.0% 47.4% 43.0% 48.7% 1182 ↓ low