← HVN Revelfest Chaos Tournament!
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at HVN Revelfest Chaos Tournament!.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 2 | 6.5% | 8 | 81.2% | 54.0% | 59.7% | 51.9% | 1333 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 3.2% | 4 | 75.0% | 53.0% | 56.7% | 51.5% | 1163 | ↓ low |
| 3 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 3.2% | 4 | 87.5% | 50.9% | 56.7% | 50.2% | 1493 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 3.2% | 4 | 75.0% | 51.2% | 56.0% | 50.7% | 1341 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Umbra Ranger | 1 | 3.2% | 4 | 62.5% | 51.2% | 55.0% | 50.9% | 1158 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Wind Overlord | 1 | 3.2% | 4 | 75.0% | 51.3% | 52.5% | 50.1% | 1313 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Slimes | 1 | 3.2% | 4 | 62.5% | 51.7% | 52.5% | 50.7% | 1204 | — |
| 8 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 9.7% | 12 | 50.0% | 50.6% | 51.3% | 50.5% | 1225 | — |
| 9 | Wind Slice & Dice | 1 | 3.2% | 4 | 37.5% | 49.1% | 51.3% | 50.3% | 1194 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 3.2% | 4 | 25.0% | 47.7% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 1302 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Fire Suzaku | 2 | 6.5% | 8 | 50.0% | 51.4% | 48.9% | 50.1% | 1204 | — |
| 12 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 3.2% | 4 | 62.5% | 50.6% | 48.6% | 49.5% | 1191 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Water Neos | 2 | 6.5% | 8 | 31.2% | 48.2% | 48.0% | 49.8% | 1219 | — |
| 14 | Wind Lorraine | 1 | 3.2% | 4 | 37.5% | 49.3% | 47.8% | 49.7% | 1161 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Wind Exia | 1 | 3.2% | 4 | 37.5% | 49.7% | 47.1% | 49.9% | 1143 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 3.2% | 4 | 50.0% | 50.4% | 46.7% | 49.5% | 1222 | — |
| 17 | Fire Exia | 1 | 3.2% | 4 | 37.5% | 49.0% | 46.2% | 49.4% | 1197 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Wind Razorgale | 3 | 9.7% | 10 | 40.0% | 48.2% | 46.2% | 49.1% | 1271 | — |
| 19 | Wind Allies | 3 | 9.7% | 6 | 41.7% | 49.3% | 46.1% | 49.3% | 1237 | — |
| 20 | Fire Tera Mage | 1 | 3.2% | 4 | 25.0% | 47.2% | 45.3% | 48.9% | 1157 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 3.2% | 4 | 37.5% | 48.0% | 44.3% | 48.6% | 1305 | ↑ top |
| 22 | Water Fractal | 1 | 3.2% | 4 | 25.0% | 47.1% | 41.7% | 48.1% | 1144 | ↓ low |