← Grand Archive Regional | Szeged, Pöttyös Zebra
Water AetherwingTier 1
at Grand Archive Regional | Szeged, Pöttyös Zebra
decks
2
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
5-4-2
overall winrate
54.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.8%
avg ELO -0.5 per match
expected value
50.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1385
· median 1385
· range 1185–1584
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1052
Q1 1171
Q3 1350
1584
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 13.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -0.9 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 9.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.2% | -0.6 |
| Wind Allies | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +4.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -4.5 |
