← Grand Archive Regional | Szeged, Pöttyös Zebra
Water AlliesTier 2
at Grand Archive Regional | Szeged, Pöttyös Zebra
decks
1
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-2-1
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.5%
avg ELO +1.3 per match
expected value
48.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1337
· median 1337
· range 1337–1337
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1052
Q1 1171
Q3 1350
1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 13.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 9.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -1.9 |
| Wind Allies | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +10.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -4.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
