← Grand Archive Regional | Szeged, Pöttyös Zebra
Water Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Grand Archive Regional | Szeged, Pöttyös Zebra
decks
1
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
6-0-2
overall winrate
87.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
69.5%
avg ELO +9.3 per match
expected value
57.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1477
· median 1477
· range 1477–1477
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1052
Q1 1171
Q3 1350
1584
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 13.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +1.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.8% | +4.5 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.1 |
| Wind Allies | 9.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.6% | +16.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.9 |
| Water Allies | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
