← Grand Archive Regional | Szeged, Pöttyös Zebra
Water Astra RangerTier 1
at Grand Archive Regional | Szeged, Pöttyös Zebra
decks
2
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
6-6-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.8%
avg ELO +1.2 per match
expected value
53.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1206
· median 1206
· range 1182–1230
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1052
Q1 1171
Q3 1350
1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 13.6% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 65.3% | +11.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 50.8% | +0.6 |
| Wind Allies | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.2 |
| Water Allies | 4.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +1.9 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.1 |
