← JadiFun Distorted Reflections Store Championship
Fire RileTier 1
at JadiFun Distorted Reflections Store Championship
decks
6
(37.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
26
14-11-1
overall winrate
55.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.2%
avg ELO +2.6 per match
expected value
54.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1322
· median 1369
· range 1133–1437
(6 pilots with an ELO rating)
1133
Q1 1341
Q3 1417
1508
17% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 18.8% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 71.4% | +12.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 12.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 60.5% | +7.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 12.5% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 61.4% | +7.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.4% | -15.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.1 |
| Fire Suited | 6.2% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 33.2% | -9.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.7 |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.5% | +15.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.8% | -5.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.8 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
The 6 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Nullifying Lantern, Fast Cure, Evercurrent Raider. Losers more often ran: Hasty Messenger, Regal Inquisition, Blanche, Sheltering Saint.
Nullifying Lantern
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Fast Cure
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Evercurrent Raider
Winning decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Crystallized Destiny
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 1.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Hasty Messenger
Losing decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Regal Inquisition
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 2.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Nullifying Mirror
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 102 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 94 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Luxera's Map | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fireball | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Insignia of the Corhazi | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Heavy Swing | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Flamme Sorcel | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lamentation's Toll | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slip Away | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Exsanguinating Wallop | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Gleaming Cut | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Striking Illuminance | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Luxem Sight | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lightweaver's Assault | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Beguiling Coup | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Thieving Cut | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Zander, Blinding Steel | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Juggle Knives | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incinerated Templar | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Baleful Oblation | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Stormcaller | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extorting Blackjack | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |