← JadiFun Distorted Reflections Store Championship
Water FractalTier 2
at JadiFun Distorted Reflections Store Championship
decks
1
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-4-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.1%
avg ELO -5.8 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
39.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1446
· median 1446
· range 1446–1446
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1133
Q1 1341
Q3 1417
1508
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 37.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.5% | -15.9 |
| Wind Allies | 18.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Fire Suited | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
