← Yeti Webcam Weekly 8/14/2025
Fire ExiaTier 2
at Yeti Webcam Weekly 8/14/2025
decks
2
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
3-7-0
overall winrate
30.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.3%
avg ELO -0.3 per match
expected value
43.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1237
· median 1237
· range 1199–1274
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1083
Q1 1180
Q3 1421
1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 18.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 49.1% | -0.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 18.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.7% | -2.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 52.1% | +2.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.3% | -1.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Suited | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.9% | -1.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Exia decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
