← Yeti Webcam Weekly 8/14/2025
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at Yeti Webcam Weekly 8/14/2025
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 18.2% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 51.2% | +0.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 50.5% | +0.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.3 |
| Fire Exia | 4.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.5% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.5 |
| Fire Suited | 4.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +1.0 |
| Water Allies | 4.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.1 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 50.7% | +0.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 4.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.5 |
| Fire Neos | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.5% | +0.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.5% | +0.8 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.5% | -0.8 |
| Water Fractal | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Overlord | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 23 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 23 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleansing Reunion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expeditious Opening | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shadowstrike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Art of War | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |