EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Yeti Webcam Weekly 8/21/2025. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Wind Shadowstrike

59.4%

8.3% share · 11 matches

1st

Fire Crux Lorraine

59.6%

2.8% share · 5 matches

3rd

Wind Razorgale

58.4%

2.8% share · 5 matches

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Fire Crux Lorraine	1	2.8%	5	90.0%	51.0%	59.6%	50.2%	1357	—
2	Wind Shadowstrike	3	8.3%	11	63.6%	50.8%	59.4%	50.8%	1280	—
3	Wind Razorgale	1	2.8%	5	80.0%	52.1%	58.4%	51.0%	1328	—
4	Fire Rile	11	30.6%	26	63.5%	50.5%	54.3%	50.2%	1356	—
5	Fire Firebloom Burn	3	8.3%	10	50.0%	50.5%	51.0%	50.4%	1269	—
6	Fire Luxem Assassin	6	16.7%	14	50.0%	50.0%	50.0%	50.0%	1371	↑ top
7	Fire Tera Cleric	1	2.8%	4	75.0%	51.8%	49.0%	50.4%	1208	↓ low
8	Wind Slice & Dice	1	2.8%	4	75.0%	50.6%	49.0%	49.9%	1444	↑ top
9	Fire Aggro	2	5.6%	9	55.6%	50.8%	47.7%	50.0%	1288	—
10	Water Genbu	3	8.3%	16	43.8%	49.4%	47.6%	49.7%	1366	↑ top
11	Water Allies	1	2.8%	5	20.0%	48.8%	42.4%	49.5%	1223	↓ low
12	Fire Suzaku	1	2.8%	3	33.3%	50.4%	42.1%	50.1%	1304	—
13	Fire Suited	3	8.3%	9	33.3%	49.0%	41.1%	49.4%	1272	—
14	Water Astra Ranger	3	8.3%	4	0.0%	47.8%	40.0%	49.1%	1161	↓ low
15	Wind Seiryuu	1	2.8%	2	0.0%	48.9%	40.0%	49.3%	1359	↑ top
16	Water Aetherwing	3	8.3%	13	23.1%	48.1%	39.9%	49.1%	1332	—