← Yeti Webcam Weekly 8/28/2025
Fire RileTier 1
at Yeti Webcam Weekly 8/28/2025
decks
20
(41.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
63
35-24-4
overall winrate
58.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.9%
avg ELO -0.0 per match
expected value
53.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1374
· median 1392
· range 1119–1652
(20 pilots with an ELO rating)
1040
Q1 1221
Q3 1420
1652
35% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
15% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.3% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 49.9% | -0.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 8.3% | 7 | 2-4-1 | 35.7% | 40.9% | 49.1% | -0.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 6.2% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.3 |
| Fire Suited | 6.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.1% | -0.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.4% | +0.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Exia | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.4% | +2.3 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.2% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 49.6% | -0.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.5 |
| Water Fractal | 4.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.9 |
| Wind Arcane | 4.2% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 50.4% | +0.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.1% | -1.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.0% | -0.8 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.7% | +1.2 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 51.8% | +1.7 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.7% | +1.1 |
| Water Genbu | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.5% | +0.8 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Wind Allies | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 2.1% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 48.5% | -1.1 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 49.0% | -0.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.7% | +1.2 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 2.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.2 |
Decklists · 20 from this event
The 20 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 15 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Incapacitate, Juggle Knives, Spirit of Fire. Losers more often ran: Spirit of Serene Fire, Inert Sword, Evercurrent Raider.
Incapacitate
Winning decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
losing decks 1.1.
Of 15 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 6.
Juggle Knives
Winning decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 15 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 8.
Spirit of Fire
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 15 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 8.
Grand Crusader's Ring
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 15 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 10.
Cremation Ritual
Winning decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.9.
Of 15 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 6.
Varuckan Acolyte
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 15 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 8.
Spirit of Serene Fire
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 15 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 5.
Inert Sword
Losing decks ran 0.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 15 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 10.
Evercurrent Raider
Losing decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
winning decks 2.2.
Of 15 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 8.
Crystallized Destiny
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 15 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 6.
The Looking Glass
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 15 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 8.
Prismatic Edge
Losing decks ran 0.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 15 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 11.
Show all 193 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 173 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spirit of Serene Fire | -0.27 | 3 | 7 | 2 | |
| Inert Sword | -0.20 | 1 | 4 | 1 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -0.20 | 2 | 5 | 7 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.20 | 3 | 6 | 1 | |
| The Looking Glass | -0.20 | 2 | 5 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.20 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| Juggle Knives | +0.20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.20 | 5 | 2 | 2 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.20 | 4 | 1 | 6 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.20 | 6 | 3 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.20 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.20 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Insignia of the Corhazi | +0.13 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Uncover the Plot | +0.13 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Luxera's Map | +0.13 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.13 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -0.13 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.13 | 3 | 5 | 4 | |
| Gleaming Cut | +0.13 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +0.13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.13 | 5 | 3 | 0 | |
| Luxem Sight | +0.13 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Lightweaver's Assault | +0.13 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.13 | 4 | 2 | 6 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.13 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Zander, Blinding Steel | +0.13 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Fireball | -0.13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.13 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.13 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Arondight, Azure Blade | +0.13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | +0.13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.13 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +0.13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Firetongue | +0.13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.13 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | -0.13 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Manxome Armoire | -0.13 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | -0.13 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | -0.13 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | -0.13 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Grim Pastiche | -0.13 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | -0.13 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.13 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -0.13 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.13 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.13 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dusklight Communion | -0.13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | -0.13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Leporine Masque | -0.13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lamentation's Toll | -0.13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Slip Away | -0.13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Exsanguinating Wallop | -0.13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | -0.13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Soutirer Vortex | -0.13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Beguiling Coup | -0.13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Suffocating Miasma | -0.13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | -0.13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.07 | 6 | 5 | 3 | |
| Duplicitous Replication | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.07 | 5 | 6 | 2 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 14 | |
| Planted Explosive | -0.07 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Hubris | -0.07 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +0.07 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.07 | 5 | 4 | 1 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -0.07 | 4 | 5 | 4 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.07 | 2 | 3 | 8 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.07 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.07 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.07 | 6 | 7 | 0 | |
| Banner Knight | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sun Ce, Weaponsmaster | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Votive Runeblade | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.07 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Consumption Ring | -0.07 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Beastsoul Visage | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | -0.07 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Sparks | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Searing Rebuke | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Profane Bindings | -0.07 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tome of Ignorance | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Fel Eidolon | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fan of Seven Debts | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Solar Providence | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Wayward Maven | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bagua of Vital Demise | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Da Qiao, Cinderbinder | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Striking Illuminance | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Kongming, Ascetic Vice | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tera Sight | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Harmonious Mantra | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Everflame Staff | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sempiternal Sage | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Solar Pinnacle | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Searing Truth | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grande Aiguille | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fabled Ruby Fatestone | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jin, Zealous Maverick | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Proof of Life | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bloodshroud Temper | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Prescience | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jin, Fate Defiant | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enrage | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shuang Ji of Sacrifice | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Berserker Plate | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Relentless Outburst | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Sunder | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mend Flesh | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jin, Undying Resolve | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 13 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 1 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Enchanted Fete | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Art of War | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Kingdom's Divide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Baleful Oblation | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Extorting Blackjack | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Stormcaller | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Insight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vainglory Retribution | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |