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Water Umbra GuardianTier 2
at RWT Collective - DTR Store Champs
decks
2
(8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
4-5-0
overall winrate
44.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
33.5%
avg ELO -7.6 per match
expected value
44.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
41.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1436
· median 1436
· range 1310–1561
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1110
Q1 1238
Q3 1465
1593
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.5% | -14.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.1 |
| Water Genbu | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 54.4% | +4.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.5% | +3.9 |
| Fire Shadowstrike | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.6% | -21.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.4% | -7.3 |
| Water Neos | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
