EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Pikku Play Store championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Fire Crux Mage

56.2%

6.5% share · 10 matches

1st

Wind Seiryuu

58.2%

6.5% share · 6 matches

3.2% share · 3 matches

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Wind Seiryuu	2	6.5%	6	83.3%	59.3%	58.2%	54.2%	1569	↑ top
2	Fire Crux Mage	2	6.5%	10	70.0%	50.6%	56.2%	51.4%	1394	—
3	Water Genbu	1	3.2%	3	66.7%	62.6%	54.3%	56.3%	1362	—
4	Wind Astra Cleric	1	3.2%	2	50.0%	52.9%	53.3%	53.9%	1367	—
5	Fire Crux Lorraine	4	12.9%	13	53.8%	56.6%	52.0%	53.0%	1298	—
6	Fire Suited	1	3.2%	3	33.3%	40.3%	52.0%	49.0%	1237	↓ low
7	Water Umbra Guardian	3	9.7%	6	66.7%	58.3%	52.0%	50.8%	1377	—
8	Wind Wakeup Combo	1	3.2%	5	70.0%	76.1%	51.7%	56.7%	1305	—
9	Water Aetherwing	2	6.5%	8	68.8%	61.0%	50.7%	50.6%	1483	↑ top
10	Horse and Taxes	1	3.2%	5	60.0%	49.4%	50.0%	47.8%	1460	↑ top
11	Fire Aggro	2	6.5%	8	50.0%	36.5%	49.4%	46.1%	1361	—
12	Wind Tera Mage	1	3.2%	3	33.3%	32.8%	47.5%	43.2%	1284	↓ low
13	Fire Arcane	1	3.2%	2	50.0%	51.6%	46.7%	47.9%	1254	↓ low
14	Fire Suzaku	2	6.5%	6	33.3%	47.5%	46.0%	48.5%	1359	—
15	Fire Exia	1	3.2%	2	0.0%	36.4%	40.0%	41.9%	1493	↑ top
16	Water Allies	1	3.2%	2	0.0%	39.2%	40.0%	44.7%	1216	↓ low
17	Wind Shadowstrike	1	3.2%	1	0.0%	47.5%	40.0%	47.5%	1213	↓ low
18	Water Fractal	3	9.7%	8	12.5%	37.4%	39.4%	44.9%	1192	↓ low
19	Wind Arcane	1	3.2%	3	0.0%	37.6%	37.3%	41.4%	1164	↓ low