Water AlliesTier 2
at Apex DTR Store champs
decks
1
(2.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
5-4-1
overall winrate
55.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.5%
avg ELO -0.2 per match
expected value
49.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1376
· median 1376
· range 1376–1376
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1047
Q1 1263
Q3 1393
1633
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 54.5% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -1.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 18.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.7 |
| Water Genbu | 6.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.2 |
| Wind Cats | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.7 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
