Water GenbuTier 1
at Apex DTR Store champs
decks
3
(6.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
20
11-9-0
overall winrate
55.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.5%
avg ELO -3.3 per match
expected value
51.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1454
· median 1491
· range 1346–1525
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1047
Q1 1263
Q3 1393
1633
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 54.5% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 39.6% | -5.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 18.2% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 55.6% | +3.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.6% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 33.7% | -10.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.7% | +6.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.7% | -22.9 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Fire Suited | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
