Water Astra RangerTier 2
at Apex DTR Store champs
decks
1
(2.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
3-6-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.3%
avg ELO -3.6 per match
expected value
46.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1149
· median 1149
· range 1149–1149
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1047
Q1 1263
Q3 1393
1633
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 54.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.8% | -3.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 18.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.9 |
| Water Genbu | 6.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.2 |
| Wind Cats | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Astra Ranger decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
