Fire Luxem AssassinTier 1
at 0817 DTR Store Championship
decks
3
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
24
15-6-3
overall winrate
68.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.6%
avg ELO +3.2 per match
expected value
58.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1474
· median 1416
· range 1313–1694
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1067
Q1 1180
Q3 1391
1694
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 44.4% | 8 | 5-2-1 | 68.8% | 62.5% | 59.5% | +4.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.7 |
| Fire Suited | 7.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.6 |
| Water Fractal | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 7.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.9% | +5.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.7 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.3% | +8.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.1% | +5.0 |
| Fire Exia | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +1.5 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 40.7% | -8.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
