Water NeosTier 2
at 0817 DTR Store Championship
decks
1
(3.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
5-4-2
overall winrate
54.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.4%
avg ELO -0.3 per match
expected value
52.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1312
· median 1312
· range 1312–1312
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1067
Q1 1180
Q3 1391
1694
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 44.4% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -1.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.3% | +8.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 7.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.3% | +3.8 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.8% | -13.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Neos decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
