Water FractalTier 1
at 0817 DTR Store Championship
decks
2
(7.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
7-7-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
38.9%
avg ELO -4.6 per match
expected value
51.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1353
· median 1353
· range 1137–1568
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1067
Q1 1180
Q3 1391
1694
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 44.4% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 39.6% | -6.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.1 |
| Fire Suited | 7.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.0% | -6.7 |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.3 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -19.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.8% | +2.9 |
| Fire Exia | 3.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.8% | -5.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.8 |
| Water Genbu | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
