Fire Ravishing MillTier 2
at DTR Store Championship
decks
2
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
4-11-0
overall winrate
26.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.6%
avg ELO -2.6 per match
expected value
39.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1421
· median 1421
· range 1308–1535
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1124
Q1 1236
Q3 1435
1730
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 56.2% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 45.4% | -3.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.5% | -11.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 9.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.4% | -3.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.4% | -2.6 |
| Water Genbu | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.1% | +4.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +12.9 |
| Fire Byakko | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.6% | -5.4 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
