Fire SuzakuTier 1
at DTR Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 56.2% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 48.0% | -1.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.4% | +1.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.4% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 46.0% | -2.6 |
| Water Genbu | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -1.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.0% | +13.5 |
| Wind Allies | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -1.0 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 3.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 47.8% | -2.1 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 9 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 9 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |