Fire RileTier 1
at CMB Games Store Champs
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suited | 23.5% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 50.9% | +0.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.0% | +3.1 |
| Hidden | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Horse and Taxes | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -2.4 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 62 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 62 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Insignia of the Corhazi | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Uncover the Plot | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Luxera's Map | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gleaming Cut | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Striking Illuminance | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Luxem Sight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lightweaver's Assault | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tabula of Salvage | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Votive Runeblade | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Thieving Cut | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Blinding Steel | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Juggle Knives | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Chibi, Battle of Red Cliffs | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arondight, Azure Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |