Water Penguin MillTier 1
at CMB Games Store Champs
decks
1
(5.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
1-2-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.6%
avg ELO -2.5 per match
expected value
53.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1162
· median 1162
· range 1162–1162
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1088
Q1 1207
Q3 1439
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 23.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Fire Suited | 23.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hidden | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Penguin Mill decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
