Fire SuitedTier 2
at CMB Games Store Champs
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 23.5% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 49.1% | -0.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.0% | +5.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hidden | 5.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 28.5% | -20.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.3 |
| Water Fractal | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.8% | -22.8 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Wind Allies | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 21 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 21 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Duchess, Six of Hearts | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Four of Spades | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Five of Spades | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rouge, Ace of Hearts | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Suited Trickery | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mortal Ambition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trump Set | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |