Fire ExiaTier 2
at DTR Regionals!
decks
1
(2.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
2-3-2
overall winrate
42.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
38.2%
avg ELO -5.9 per match
expected value
47.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1408
· median 1408
· range 1408–1408
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
957
Q1 1188
Q3 1404
1558
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 28.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -1.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 18.4% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 24.7% | -18.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 15.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -1.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Genbu | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Exia decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
