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Fire SuzakuTier 2

at DTR Regionals!

decks
2 (5.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12 6-6-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.0% avg ELO -4.7 per match
expected value
47.3% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.5% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1345 · median 1345 · range 1232–1458 (2 pilots with an ELO rating)
957 Q1 1188 Q3 1404 1558
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Rile 28.9% 4 0-4-0 0.0% 25.0% 24.1% -16.6
Wind Shadowstrike 18.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 64.4% +23.1
Wind Seiryuu 15.8% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 55.2% +5.0
Fire Aggro 7.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.4% +5.5
Fire Luxem Assassin 5.3% 0
Horse and Taxes 5.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 33.5% -26.4
Fire Crux Mage 2.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 36.7% -21.3
Fire Exia 2.6% 0
Fire Genbu 2.6% 0
Fire Neos 2.6% 0
Fire Suited 2.6% 0
Fire Umbra Ranger 2.6% 0
Water Aetherwing 2.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 52.4% +3.8
Water Allies 2.6% 0
Wind Astra Cleric 2.6% 0
Wind Luxem Assassin 2.6% 0
Wind Luxem Zander 2.6% 0
Wind Umbra Diana 2.6% 0
Wind Wakeup Combo 2.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.7% +15.5
Decklists · 2 from this event

The 2 public Fire Suzaku decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 12 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 12 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Staggering Strike +1.00 1 0 0
Viridian Protective Trinket -1.00 0 1 0
Under Fire -1.00 0 1 0
Embercrypt Burn +1.00 1 0 0
Intensified Pyre -1.00 0 1 0
Fluffy Shopkeep +1.00 1 0 0
Nascent Blast -1.00 0 1 0
Restorative Flame +1.00 1 0 0
Sadi, Blood Harvester -1.00 0 1 0
Thieving Cut -1.00 0 1 0
Censer of Restful Peace -1.00 0 1 0
Suzaku's Command +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/31967/archetypes/Fire Suzaku