Horse and TaxesTier 1
at DTR Regionals!
decks
2
(5.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
10-4-1
overall winrate
70.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
62.3%
avg ELO +5.0 per match
expected value
55.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1302
· median 1302
· range 1150–1454
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
957
Q1 1188
Q3 1404
1558
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 28.9% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.6% | +1.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 18.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.7% | +15.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 15.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.4% | +2.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.5% | +26.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.0 |
| Fire Exia | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Genbu | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.4% | +2.3 |
| Fire Neos | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Fire Suited | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.4% | -20.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Horse and Taxes decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
