← Grand Archive TCG Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Grand Archive TCG Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Fractal | 2 | 12.5% | 8 | 75.0% | 72.0% | 62.9% | 66.0% | 1288 | — |
| 2 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 75.0% | 51.4% | 53.3% | 49.3% | 1404 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Shadowstrike | 4 | 25.0% | 16 | 56.2% | 45.5% | 53.2% | 48.7% | 1371 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 75.0% | 53.9% | 50.5% | 49.2% | 1424 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Exia | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 25.0% | 39.6% | 50.0% | 50.8% | 983 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 2 | 12.5% | 8 | 50.0% | 57.2% | 47.3% | 50.6% | 1220 | — |
| 7 | Fire Diana | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 25.0% | 47.8% | 44.0% | 47.8% | 1046 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Suzaku | 2 | 12.5% | 8 | 37.5% | 40.7% | 43.3% | 44.5% | 1378 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Fire Umbra Diana | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 12.5% | 41.5% | 41.2% | 45.4% | 1119 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 37.5% | 47.3% | 40.6% | 44.5% | 1190 | ↓ low |