← Hans Arena Store Championship
Fire RileTier 1
at Hans Arena Store Championship
decks
11
(36.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
38
21-13-4
overall winrate
60.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.3%
avg ELO +0.8 per match
expected value
55.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1388
· median 1399
· range 1205–1571
(11 pilots with an ELO rating)
1047
Q1 1210
Q3 1405
1571
45% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
9% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 20.0% | 9 | 5-3-1 | 61.1% | 57.7% | 49.9% | -0.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.8% | -4.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.2% | +6.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.7% | 5 | 1-2-2 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 44.1% | -3.4 |
| Water Allies | 6.7% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 49.1% | -0.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.8% | +4.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.9% | +9.5 |
| Fire Suited | 3.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.4% | +6.1 |
| Slimes | 3.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.6 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.9% | +12.4 |
| Wind Allies | 3.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 40.4% | -9.2 |
Decklists · 11 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Sword of Seeking, Spirit of Fire, Stalwart Shieldmate. Losers more often ran: Turbo Charge, Chalice of Blood, Spirit of Serene Fire.
Sword of Seeking
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Spirit of Fire
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Stalwart Shieldmate
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Staggering Strike
Winning decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Flame Sweep
Winning decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
losing decks 1.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Drawn Blade
Winning decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Turbo Charge
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Chalice of Blood
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Spirit of Serene Fire
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Backup Charger
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Fast Cure
Losing decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Crystallized Destiny
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 0.
Show all 113 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 95 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turbo Charge | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Orb of Hubris | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Baleful Oblation | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Extorting Blackjack | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Siphoning Fractal | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Stormcaller | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Votive Runeblade | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Luxera's Map | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Gleaming Cut | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Striking Illuminance | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Luxem Sight | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lightweaver's Assault | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.20 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Zander, Blinding Steel | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Searing Truth | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Suzaku's Command | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fabled Ruby Fatestone | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arondight, Azure Blade | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Insignia of the Corhazi | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Caliburn of Silencing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Juggle Knives | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Banner Knight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurid Dreaming | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |