← Hans Arena Store Championship
Water Astra RangerTier 2
at Hans Arena Store Championship
decks
1
(3.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
1-5-0
overall winrate
16.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
35.4%
avg ELO -7.8 per match
expected value
42.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1047
· median 1047
· range 1047–1047
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1047
Q1 1210
Q3 1405
1571
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 36.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.1% | -12.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 20.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
| Fire Suited | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.3 |
| Wind Allies | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Astra Ranger decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
