← Hans Arena Store Championship
Water AlliesTier 1
at Hans Arena Store Championship
decks
2
(6.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
8-6-0
overall winrate
57.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.2%
avg ELO +3.4 per match
expected value
50.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1307
· median 1307
· range 1280–1335
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1047
Q1 1210
Q3 1405
1571
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 36.7% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 50.9% | +0.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 20.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -1.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -7.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +2.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
