Water FractalTier 3
at KYD DTR Store Champion
decks
1
(2.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
4-5-0
overall winrate
44.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.1%
avg ELO -5.0 per match
expected value
47.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1528
· median 1528
· range 1528–1528
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1106
Q1 1275
Q3 1419
1591
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 37.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 37.8% | -9.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.6% | -18.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Wind Allies | 7.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.4% | -20.1 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
