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Fire RileTier 1
at Deck Out Store Championships
decks
6
(42.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
25
15-8-2
overall winrate
64.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
60.1%
avg ELO +3.7 per match
expected value
54.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1321
· median 1300
· range 1195–1461
(6 pilots with an ELO rating)
1106
Q1 1285
Q3 1448
1532
17% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suzaku | 14.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 59.6% | +7.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 60.1% | +7.5 |
| Fire Exia | 7.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 36.5% | -13.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.6% | -4.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 7.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.9% | +4.4 |
| Water Allies | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 7.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.2% | +17.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.3% | +4.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.1% | -4.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.2% | +22.7 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +5.9 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Incapacitate, Dungeon Guide, Backup Charger. Losers more often ran: Reduce to Ash, Spirit of Fire, Sword of Seeking.
Incapacitate
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Dungeon Guide
Winning decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
losing decks 2.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Backup Charger
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Turbo Charge
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Chalice of Blood
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Spirit of Serene Fire
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Reduce to Ash
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 2.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 0.
Spirit of Fire
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Sword of Seeking
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Inert Sword
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 0.
Cremation Ritual
Losing decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 0.
The Looking Glass
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 0.
Show all 114 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 94 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incapacitate | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.20 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Jin, Zealous Maverick | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Proof of Life | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bloodshroud Temper | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fortuitous Fire | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Jin, Fate Defiant | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Inert Sword | -0.20 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Shuang Ji of Sacrifice | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.20 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Berserker Plate | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -0.20 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jin, Undying Resolve | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Relentless Outburst | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mend Flesh | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Enrage | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Siphoning Fractal | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Searing Truth | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fabled Ruby Fatestone | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Baleful Oblation | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Demolition | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Extorting Blackjack | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Stormcaller | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Insignia of the Corhazi | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Luxera's Map | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gleaming Cut | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Striking Illuminance | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Luxem Sight | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lightweaver's Assault | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Blinding Steel | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Votive Runeblade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 |