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Fire RileTier 1
at Store Championship Cardpoint
decks
6
(35.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
37
20-13-4
overall winrate
59.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.4%
avg ELO +2.3 per match
expected value
54.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1310
· median 1290
· range 1153–1584
(6 pilots with an ELO rating)
1092
Q1 1156
Q3 1319
1584
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
17% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 11.8% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 38.1% | -6.9 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 11.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.5% | +8.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.8% | 5 | 2-1-2 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 53.1% | +1.8 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.5% | +3.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.9% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 74.7% | +15.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 34.2% | -11.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 5.9% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.0% | -5.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.5% | +8.1 |
| Horse and Taxes | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
| Water Genbu | 5.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.9% | +15.3 |
| Wind Allies | 5.9% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.1% | +3.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.9% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -0.8 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 6 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 6 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Insignia of the Corhazi, Uncover the Plot, Luxera's Map. Losers more often ran: Spirit of Fire.
Insignia of the Corhazi
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Uncover the Plot
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Luxera's Map
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Zander, Deft Executor
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Excalibur, Cleansing Light
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Backup Charger
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Spirit of Fire
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Show all 136 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 116 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Insignia of the Corhazi | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Luxera's Map | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gleaming Cut | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Striking Illuminance | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Luxem Sight | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.50 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lightweaver's Assault | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Blinding Steel | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Cinder Geyser | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Sparks | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Searing Rebuke | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Votive Runeblade | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zephyr's Edge | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Searing Truth | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rapid Combustion | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fabled Ruby Fatestone | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastsoul Visage | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Purifying Thurible | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Shriveling Vines | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Diao Chan, Dreaming Wish | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ripples of Atrophy | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Awakening | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Firebloom Flourish | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Suspicious Concoction | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Idyll Corsage | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blossoming Denial | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Staff of Blossoming Will | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Bloom: Summer's Glow | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Season's End | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Conflagrative Trounce | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ombreux Chevalier | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Profane Bindings | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |