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Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Store Championship Cardpoint
decks
1
(5.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
6-2-2
overall winrate
70.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.5%
avg ELO -2.0 per match
expected value
54.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1584
· median 1584
· range 1584–1584
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1092
Q1 1156
Q3 1319
1584
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 35.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.5% | -8.1 |
| Water Allies | 11.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.4% | +3.8 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 11.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 49.5% | -0.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.3% | -20.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.5% | +4.0 |
| Horse and Taxes | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.0% | -6.4 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
