← Velocity DTR Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Velocity DTR Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Fractal | 1 | 12.5% | 4 | 100.0% | 63.5% | 60.0% | 55.3% | 1431 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 12.5% | 4 | 75.0% | 61.8% | 58.3% | 57.6% | 1222 | — |
| 3 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 66.7% | 56.4% | 53.3% | 53.0% | 1360 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 66.7% | 53.4% | 52.5% | 50.6% | 1241 | — |
| 5 | Fire Suzaku | 2 | 25.0% | 6 | 41.7% | 50.3% | 48.7% | 50.7% | 1145 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Rile | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 46.4% | 46.7% | 48.3% | 1175 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Water Tera Kongming | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 16.7% | 38.5% | 42.5% | 43.2% | 1134 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Umbra Ciel | 1 | 12.5% | 4 | 0.0% | 29.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | 1153 | ↓ low |