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Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Game Nut Distorted Reflections Regional
decks
1
(2.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-2-2
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.9%
avg ELO -3.2 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1420
· median 1420
· range 1420–1420
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1120
Q1 1201
Q3 1339
1689
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.9% | -5.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.2% | -20.4 |
| Water Genbu | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Crux Mage | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Diao Chan | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -4.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +11.9 |
| Water Neos | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Triskit | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
